Here is another fantastic application of XBRL based financial analysis. We are going to use the last 15 quarters of revenues and the last 15 quarters of NYMEX crude futures prices to predict the fourth quarter revenues of Oil services firms.
The cynic says… ‘At $35-$40 dollars a barrel, these firms are clearly losing sales compared to last year, why do this?
The smart money says, not all firms are exposed the same way. You need to understand the past in order to forecast the future with context
Please note, the last column in the table is the dollar difference in SALES from the actual fourth quarter of 2014 to the FORECAST Sales number in 2015. So in the case where you see $25 Billion dollars in the loss column that is a difference of sales from one year to the next. And it is NOT a typo.
Without further ado… Here is the Calcbench forecast for fourth quarter sales for the top 20 Oil Services firms
Company | FORECAST Revenue 4th Quarter 2015 | ACTUAL revenue 4th Quarter 2014 | % Change YoY | FORECAST $ LOSS YoY |
---|---|---|---|---|
Exxon Mobil Corp | $56,737,640,668 | $82,621,000,000 | -31.3% | $25,883,359,332 |
Chevron Corp | $28,082,095,317 | $42,111,000,000 | -33.3% | $14,028,904,683 |
Phillips 66 | $22,035,627,767 | $34,963,000,000 | -37.0% | $12,927,372,233 |
Valero Energy Corp/TX | $19,451,452,223 | $27,859,000,000 | -30.2% | $8,407,547,777 |
Marathon Petroleum Corp | $16,657,670,311 | $22,250,000,000 | -25.1% | $5,592,329,689 |
Conocophillips | $6,413,326,385 | $11,208,000,000 | -42.8% | $4,794,673,615 |
Tesoro Corp /NEW/ | $6,694,136,074 | $8,445,000,000 | -20.7% | $1,750,863,926 |
Devon Energy Corp/DE | $3,819,362,596 | $5,995,000,000 | -36.3% | $2,175,637,404 |
Chesapeake Energy Corp | $2,812,981,818 | $5,050,000,000 | -44.3% | $2,237,018,182 |
Eog Resources Inc | $2,031,772,559 | $4,645,497,000 | -56.3% | $2,613,724,441 |
PBF Energy Inc. | $2,809,298,976 | $4,520,000,000 | -37.8% | $1,710,701,024 |
Occidental Petroleum Corp /DE/ | $2,890,883,606 | $4,307,000,000 | -32.9% | $1,416,116,394 |
HollyFrontier Corp | $3,114,814,217 | $4,283,119,000 | -27.3% | $1,168,304,783 |
Anadarko Petroleum Corp | $1,279,407,007 | $3,177,000,000 | -59.7% | $1,897,592,993 |
Western Refining, Inc. | $2,192,698,902 | $3,024,816,000 | -27.5% | $832,117,098 |
Apache Corp | $1,230,261,625 | $2,952,000,000 | -58.3% | $1,721,738,375 |
Marathon Oil Corp | $1,446,406,765 | $2,497,000,000 | -42.1% | $1,050,593,235 |
Hess Corp | $1,412,736,584 | $2,374,000,000 | -40.5% | $961,263,416 |
Cvr Energy Inc | $1,232,844,254 | $1,841,800,000 | -33.1% | $608,955,746 |
CVR Refining, LP | $1,188,589,751 | $1,772,800,000 | -33.0% | $584,210,249 |
Delek US Holdings, Inc. | $1,237,905,414 | $1,761,700,000 | -29.7% | $523,794,586 |